Saturday, February 5, 2011

Failed Predictions of the Alarmists

In 1831 a Baptist convert, William Miller, was asked to preach. Based upon his reading of Daniel 8:4 he predicted that Jesus would return on March 21, 1843.He gathered tens of thousands of followers. His followers sold their homes and businesses to wait on the hill tops. Nothing happened. Miller then revised his calculations and said that he would come on Oct 22, 1844. Nothing happened. His successor in the Adventist movement, Ellen White, then said in 1850 that there were only months left before Christ would return. When that didn't happen, Ellen White's last prediction of the return was in 1856 where she said that some alive at the 1856 convention would see the return. That too didn't happen.

We rightly shake our heads at such a belief system that inspires such false predictions but which still attract large numbers of followers. Scientists are fond of laughing at such things. But what do we do when science engages in the same kind of behavior? Global warming alarmists have for decades been making equally apocalyptic predictions, all of which fail. Below are some of them.

I have looked for predictions made by global warming alarmists in the distant past. I must admit that I had failed to find them in google searches. Then, David Whitehouse posted a page last month which showed me where to get them. I must tip my hat to him. source I will repeat some of his quotations here, but I have found more.

One of the most interesting quotations dredged up by Whitehouse is James Hansen's numerical prediction in 1986 that the world would be 2 degrees warmer in merely 20 years, that is, by 1986.


Hansen predicted that global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’” AP Overheating of Earth Poses Survival Threat, “ The Press-Courier,(Milwaukee) June 11, 1986
source

Well, that didn't happen. He was being quoted using deg F, but in deg C he predicted a .88 deg C temperature rise in 20 years. The reality is (see picture below) that the temperature rose less than half that much.



And according to the next prediction we should be an additional .9 deg Centigrade hotter in another 10 years.

Hansen said the average U.S. temperature has risen from 1 to 2 degrees since 1958 and is predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010 and 2020.” AP Overheating of Earth Poses Survival Threat, “ The Press-Courier (Milwaukee), June 11, 1986
source

Hansen's doomsday temperature mis-prediction can't come true because the last one didn't.

For those who don't like anything but peer reviewed predictions, here it is out of the Journal of Geophysical Research.

"The 1 [deg]C level of warming is exceeded during the
next few decades in both scenarios A and B; in scenario A
that level of warming is reached in less than 20 years and
in scenario B it is reached within the next 25 years.
" J. HANSEN, I. FUNG, A. LACIS, D. RIND, S. LEBEDEFF, R. RUEDY, AND G. RUSSELL, “Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, 93, NO. D8, PAGES 9341-9364, AUGUST 20, 1988, p. 9346

He erroneously predicted that the rate of warming would be half a degree per decade.

"The computed temperature changes are sufficient to have
a large impact on other parts of the biosphere. A warnting
of 0.5[deg] C per decade implies typically a poleward shift of
isotherms by 50 to 75 km per decade. This is an order of
magnitude faster than the major climate shifts in the
paleoclimate record, and faster than most plants and trees
are thought to be capable of naturally nilgrating [Davis,
1988]
” J. HANSEN, I. FUNG, A. LACIS, D. RIND, S. LEBEDEFF, R. RUEDY, AND G. RUSSELL, “Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, 93, NO. D8, PAGES 9341-9364, AUGUST 20, 1988, p. 9357


He spread this erroneous prediction around via willing but unskeptical reporters and environmental organizations.

“A major report from the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program earlier this month concluded that without a major effort to fight warming, global temperatures could increase by 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit per decade until the middle of the next century, and sea levels could rise by a foot.” Guy Darst, “Nasa Scientist Says Future Droughts Likely,” The Lewiston daily Sun, June 24, 1988, p. 6
source

Of course this wasn't the earliest failed prediction of Dr. James Hansen, mis-predictor par excellance:

“Within 15 years,” said Goddard Space Flight Honcho James Hansen, “global temperatures will rise to a level which hasn’t existed on earth for 100,000 years”. Sandy Grady, “The Heat is On,” -- The News and Courier, June 17th 1986


And he implied that seas would rise 85 feet in the next 5 years:

“The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don’t act soon. None of the current climate and ice models predict this. But I prefer the evidence from the Earth’s history and my own eyes. I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself.” --Jim Hansen, “Climate change: On the edge” The Independent, 17th February, 2006source

Yep scare the readers so he can keep that grant money rollin' in. Halleluyah!

And he is utterly inconsistent. Above he says that a 1 degree rise would make it hotter than anytime in the last 100,000 years. But here he says that a one degree C rise makes it hotter than anytime in the last 500,000 years.

"How long have we got? We have to stabilise emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable.” Jim Hansen, “Climate change: On the edge” The Independent, Friday, Feb 17, 2006 source


Hansen got the World Meteorology Organization and the UN to endorse his ridiculously alarmist rates of temperature rise. Once again they proclaimed, as if it were actual fact, that the world was about to warm at the rate of .54 deg F per decade.

“A major report from the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program earlier this month concluded that without a major effort to fight warming, global temperatures could increase by 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit per decade until the middle of the next century, and sea levels could rise by a foot.” Guy Darst, “Nasa Scientist Says Future Droughts Likely,” The Lewiston daily Sun, June 24, 1988, p. 6
source

The actual value is 1/5th of that alarmist prediction. But hey, why should the facts get in the way of a good belief system, that keeps the grant money flowing from the taxpayers?


And in 1985 he even got Carl Sagan involved, misleading people into thinking that the world would be 9 deg F hotter in merely 15 years.

“Few scientists now dispute that today’s soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere will cause global temperature averages to rise by as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit sometime after the year 2000, Sagan said.” Robert Engleman, “Fossil Fuels Bring Trouble,” The Vindicator, Dec 12, 1985, p. 59
source

Only idiots would doubt what Carl has pontificated here. Approximately 4.5 Deg C warming in 15 years. How could we doubt? It WAS the consensus and consensus is the all in all of scientific knowledge. If everyone believes something wrong, it is bound to be true. Isn't that correct? That is what the eco-wacko global warming folks want you to believe.

At a Congressional hearing these panic stricken Global Warming Hysteriacs solemnly testified that in merely 25 years all sorts of bad things would be going on.

“Other scientists gave senators the same grim picture of the United States with the ozone nibbled away: Average temperatures up nine degrees, sparse rainfall destroying crops, melting polar ice slicing beaches at such places as Atlantic City by 85 feet in 25 years, 2 million yearly cases of skin cancer.” Sandy Grady, “The Heat is On,” The News and Courier, June 17th 1986
source

Anyone been to Atlantic City gambling lately? If so, you have disproven this hysterically funny mis-prediction of the hysteriacs.

Does anyone actually believe now that this 1986 hysteriac prediction will come true?

"A predicted rise in sea level of one foot within the next 30 to 40 years will drive much of the Atlantic and Gulf shoreline inward by 100 feet and some of it by more than 1,000 feet, according to marine geologists." Erik Eckholm, “The Rising Seas Problems will Seep Far Inland,” Chicago Tribune, March 16, 1986
source

30 years from 1986 is 4 years from now. My suspicion is that it is highly unlikely that this will happen.


In 1982 Hermann Flohn gave the Arctic ice only 20 more years of life. He said it would be totally gone by 2002

"Hermann Flohn of the University of Bonn, West Germany, said studies of the Arctic Sea ice cover have shown that prolonging the summer melt season by as little as two weeks annually would free the Arctic of ice in about 20 years.” “Scientists predict World’s Climate Will Warm Up”, The Leader-Post-Jan 9, 1982,
source

How could we possibly disbelieve him. He is a scientist. He is part of the CONSENSUS! Since he must be absolutely correct, the ice I took pictures of as I flew over the Arctic Ocean in 2005 and 2006 (17 times) really wasn't there. Here is a picture of what wasn't there in 2005 because CONSENSUS said it wouldn't be.



Hansen has left us with other mis-predictions to laugh at in a few years, of course, by then the global warming hysteriacs will have ruined the world economy with their stupidity, but never mind. He predicted that the world would be 8 deg F hotter in 2030. That is about 4.2 deg C hotter. Since we have warmed .4 deg C since the prediction, we have another 3.8 deg C to go.


“If scientist James Hansen is correct, humankind may be turning planet Earth into a giant steamer and the population into unwilling clams.
The director of the Goddard Institute for Space studies in New York City, who spoke Wednesday at the University of Florida, forecasts the average global temperature rise as much as 8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030. This, he said, would more than double the annual number of days in many U. S. cities with weather in the 90s.”
John Wood, “Earth is heating Up, Space Scientist Warns, “ Gainesville Sun, Sept 4, 1986, p. 1
source


In 1989 there was this prediction of bad times in 10 years. Anyone feel like we have been in something as bad as nuclear war?

And the Worldwatch Institute, an environmental research organization, calls the 1990s ‘the turnaround decade’ in which people will either stop polluting or face an environmental disaster as devastating as nuclear war.” Mitchell Landsberg, “Bright or Blight,” The Item, Oct 23, 1989, p. 1,Source


And here is one that has been falsified in just a year and a half. In early 2009,Stephen Chu, Obama's always loudly proclaimed, Nobel Laureate who can't be doubted when he talks of climate, because he got a Nobel in an entirely unrelated field, i.e. in high temperature superconduction, said this about global warming and the California snowpack:

Chu recently told the Los Angeles Times that global warming might melt 90 percent of California's snowpack, which stores much of the water needed for agriculture. This, Chu said, would mean "no more agriculture in California," the nation's leading food producer. Chu added: "I don't actually see how they can keep their cities going."
No more lettuce for Los Angeles? Chu likes predictions, so here is another: Nine decades hence, our great-great-grandchildren will add the disappearance of California artichokes to the list of predicted planetary calamities that did not happen. Global cooling recently joined that lengthening list. George Will, "Dark Green Doomsayers," Feb 15, 2009
source

Well, just 2 years later we find that the snowpack holds more water than at anytime in the past 17 years. source But of course, we all know that the alarmists now say warming is cooling and much snowfall is to be expected on a hot earth.

But we are told that we should never doubt the proclamations of a Nobel Laureate, even if he is pontificating about things outside his field of expertise. After all, his is the CONSENSUS view.

One of my favorite failed predictions came out of the pages of the Rocky Mountain News, that rag staffed by gullible reporters. This one turned up on a google search


It's the year 2008 and global warming has caused half of London to be submerged under water. Rocky Mountain News - May 1, 1992

Admittedly, I haven't been in London since 2004, but it was very much above water at that time.

To close this up, we need to ask why we should believe their incredibly apocalyptic predictions when their last set of apocalyptic predictions failed. Like the Millerites, they constantly revise their predictions when the proclaimed event doesn't happen on their time schedule. How are we to trust their predictions about 2100 when their predictions about the past 20 years have been so false? Remember we will not be here in 2100 to check out how false they are. We will all be dead. But then, that is part of the scam. Make scary predictions so far out that one can never be proven wrong. Make those predictions dire so that the grant money can continue to flow. In my opinion, the who thing is nothing but a political agenda to keep the tax dollars flowing for the greedy researchers.

4 comments:

  1. I remember those dire predictions back in the early 1990's. People keep falling for this stuff because they have short memories, and have already forgotten the last time the enviro-whacko's insisted the world was going to end.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Your blog always gives me a warm feeling. :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. "greedy researchers".

    Because researchers make oh so much money...? As opposed to the poor, poor oil companies? Yeah, that makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
  4. one explanation:

    melting ice

    the volume of ice that melted over past 20 years cooled oceans by 0.26 degree.

    if you take this into account red arrow would be quite close

    Mafj

    ReplyDelete