Sunday, April 18, 2010

An uncertain history




One of the jokes in the old Soviet Union was that the Soviet Union was the only country with an uncertain past. The Soviets had a way with altering previously published photographs to remove people who had formerly been there. The above two photos are among the most famous of these history-altering attempts. Grigory Grigoryevich Nelyuboff, simply wasn't there in May 1961, no matter what your lying eyes told you if you saw the original May 1961 publication.

Sadly, much of the climatological corrections have the same effect.Below are two graphs, one showing the original observed temperature profile for Seligman, Arizona. the other the 'adjusted' history. The data was taken from here





Notice that on the original unaltered temperature record, 1960 is warmer than the present time (makes one think about the tree-ring temperature proxy decline that was discussed in the famous 'hide the decline' email of climategate). But in the altered, and final dataset, 1960 is suddenly a full degree cooler than the present day temperature, or alternatively, editing alone has added a full degree of temperature difference to Seligman.

One will notice also that the raw data was hotter by half a degree, with 1960 and 2000 being close to 13 deg C. The adjusted data is down to 12.5 deg for 2000 but about 11.6 deg for 1960. This adjustment changes the trend, and the anomaly which is what most global warming advocates show. They show the trend in the anomalies, and the editing has changed the trend of Seligman.

Here is a graph with both adjusted and unadjusted data on the same graph.



Notice that history has been changed. History is variable.


Let's look next door at Fort Valley, AZ, a town at a much lower elevation. We see the same tendency to make the present hotter. First the raw data and then the 'adjusted' data.






If you look closely the entire history at Fort Valley has been changed to cool all temperatures prior to 1990. Look at 1910. On the unadjusted the peak was about 7.25 deg C. After adjustment, the temperature has been cooled to about 6.25 deg. The 1964 cold spell was cooled even further going from about 5 deg C on the unadjusted to about 4.65 on the 'adjusted'.

Here are both adjusted and unadjusted on the same graph. You can see how the 'correction' systematically cools the past in relation to the present, thus making the temperature TREND, which is what the climatologists scare us with, appear worse than it actually is.




To paraphrase a line from The Lord of the Rings movie, Be afraid, be very afraid, not of the temperature but of climatological corrections.

1 comment:

  1. But in the altered, and final dataset, 1960 is suddenly a full degree cooler than the present day temperature, or alternatively, editing alone has added a full degree of temperature difference to Seligman.

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