Sunday, February 21, 2010

IPCC Authors Now Say Ocean's Rise Not Certain

In spite of repeatedly being told that the world is going to end by the Holocene denying climatologists and being repeatedly told that it is settled science that the ocean levels are going to rise and drown those Bangladeshi's, (whom it seems, are incapable of moving out of the way of the rising waters), it is now uncertain if or how much the oceans will rise.

The authors of a Nature Geoscience paper, have now retracted the paper whose abstract said

It is difficult to project sea-level rise in response to warming climates by the end of the century, especially because the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to warming is not well understood1. However, sea-level fluctuations in response to changing climate have been reconstructed for the past 22,000 years from fossil data, a period that covers the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the warm Holocene interglacial period. Here we present a simple model of the integrated sea-level response to temperature change that implicitly includes contributions from the thermal expansion and the reduction of continental ice. Our model explains much of the centennial-scale variability observed over the past 22,000 years, and estimates 4–24 cm of sea-level rise during the twentieth century, in agreement with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 (IPCC). In response to the minimum (1.1 °C) and maximum (6.4 °C) warming projected for AD 2100 by the IPCC models, our model predicts 7 and 82 cm of sea-level rise by the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. The range of sea-level rise is slightly larger than the estimates from the IPCC models of 18–76 cm, but is sufficiently similar to increase confidence in the projections. Mark Siddall1, Thomas F. Stocker & Peter U. Clark, "Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change," Nature Geoscience 2, 571 - 575 (2009) Source

Now, the authors have retracted the paper. It seems that after scaring everyone about death by drowning, they have made serious mistakes.

In a statement the authors of the paper said: "Since publication of our paper we have become aware of two mistakes which impact the detailed estimation of future sea level rise. This means that we can no longer draw firm conclusions regarding 21st century sea level rise from this study without further work.

"One mistake was a miscalculation; the other was not to allow fully for temperature change over the past 2,000 years. Because of these issues we have retracted the paper and will now invest in the further work needed to correct these mistakes."

It seems that the mistakes now being found in this "settled science" are legion. Can we trust anything these guys did?


  1. Morton, I smell a set up here. The guy who "found the error" is Stefan Ramsdorf.
    Here check this bing search on Ramsdorf.

    Reading through that list does this guy sound like a thoughtful sort who is honestly trying to right the record? To me he doesn't even sound sane.

  2. Well, what can I said? I hope you can still doing this amazing job. Unfortunately I don't have enough time to come across the blog and read each post that you done.