Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Trees Can't Hide the Decline

Twisting data to fit one's preconceptions is a bad thing in science. It is considered fraudulent to do that. Unfortunately, scientists are not always pure in motive or with the data. Such appears to be the case with the Climate Research Unit. While others have commented on the comments found in computer code among the hacked data from the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University, I want to show what data they were trying to hide. The trees of the world appear to say that the world cooled after 1960. First some of the comments in the code.

I looked in one directory and found several comments indicating that they were stopping the tree ring data at 1960 in order to avoid the decline presumably in temperature. Here are examples.

From the file /Documents/harris-tree/recon-esper.pro

;
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,
; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series.
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline
;
perst=1881.
peren=1960.


Now, I would note that the data is read (according to period start (perst) from 1881 to 1960, (peren). the question is, is there data past 1960? The answer would seem to be yes. Esper's tree data was first published in Jan Esper, et al, "Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability" Science 22 MARCH 2002 VOL 295, pp 2250-2253 and it contains data up to the year 2000. So that makes the question really interesting why they stop reading the tree ring data in 1960?

Below is a picture of the decline they were talking about.It is an enlargement of figure 2 of the above article.



A comparison of Figure 2 and 3 of Esper et al, show that there is a simple linear scaling of the temperature with the peak of 1950 being about zero C and the low seen on the left side of this enlargement above being about -1 deg C. See below



I mention this only to show that if the proportionality continues past 1960, there would be a decline in global temperature. This is what the climatologists didn't want you to see, which is why Phil Jones said. in an email dated Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000

I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith's to hide the decline.


Now lets look at other files in this directory. One of the most interesting is the one I have not seen on the web but found while perusing. It is from documents/harris-tree/calibrate_nhrecon.pro

;
; Calibrates, usually via regression, various NH and quasi-NH records
; against NH or quasi-NH seasonal or annual temperatures.
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline that affects tree-ring density records)

;
perst=1881.
peren=1960.




From documents/harris-tree/recon1.pro

;
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass MEAN timeseries of MXD
; anomalies against full NH temperatures.
; THIS IS FOR THE AGE-BANDED (ALL BANDS) STUFF OF HARRY'S
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid
; the decline
;
perst=1881.
peren=1960.


Apparently at one point someone stopped the tree rings at 1940 but this copy of the code clearly shows that they read it up to 1960

But the same thing is going on, they are hiding contradictory information. I will merely mention that documents/harris-tree/recon2.pro, documents/harris-tree/recon-jones.pro and documents/harris-tree/recon-overpeck.pro have the same lines of code at its top as well.

The file documents/harris-tree/mann-recon.pro has a little bit different code, but because of who Michale Mann is, it is interesting to see that in his reconstruction he too has the stop at 1940 but he reads the data up to 1960.

;
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass MEAN timeseries of MXD
; anomalies against full NH temperatures.
; THIS IS FOR THE Mann et al. reconstruction
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
; IN FACT, I NOW HAVE AN ANNUAL LAND-ONLY NORTH OF 20N VERSION OF MANN,
; SO I CAN CALIBRATE THIS TOO - WHICH MEANS I'm ONLY ALTERING THE SEASON
;
doland=1 ; 0=use Mann NH 1=use Mann land north of 20N
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid
; the decline
;
perst=1881.
peren=1960.




It is clear that everyone running these reconstructions knew of the scheme to hide the decline and they all participated in it. This is truly and ugly and sad time for science, which depends upon trust.

The truly interesting question is, if the climatologists believe the trees as a proxy for temperature for 1000 years, why disbelieve them in the last 40 years? Answer because the last 40 years have to have warmed or global warming didn't happen. Because it was inconceivable to those folk that global warming didn't happen, they had to get rid of the data that contradicted their world view. But who do we believe, trees or the lying thermometers, like the one below from Titusville, Florida from Anthony Watts site.

9 comments:

  1. ran across this today:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk
    Hide The Decline

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://www.newsweek.com/id/32482 I'm only on my 3rd blog here and it baffles me how everyone subscribed to this blog can just ignore +1000s of Ph.D. scientists who spend their lives following politcal and peer reviewed methods and continue to get the same results. Yes, there were some scientists who manipulated some data, its madness, humans can do no wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  3. How is this sad. They are using actual instrumental data measured by thermometers to remove an apparent decline in the tree-ring densities. Unless you think that the thermometers are not recording temperatures in which case ignore today's weather report.

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