Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Natural Cycles, not Global Warming--says IPCC Author

It has been my experience that whenever one criticizes CO2 as the sole cause of global warming, if you are not a climatologist, everyone tells you to sit down, shut up and listen to the climatological experts. But even if you say what I have been saying, they won't listen--violating the belief system of the Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates elicits lots of criticism--most of it unwarrented.

Ok, for this post, I will listen to the experts. The UN had a conference on climate change last week in Geneva, Switzerland. New Scientist reported on the conference, focusing on a speech given by Mojib Latif, one of the IPCC authors. Below is a quotation from the article. Note how Latif has to be sure to tell everyone he isn't a skeptic. I know why he does that--if people think you doubt the almighty God of global warming, they will quit listening to you.

"We could be about to enter one or even two decades of cooler temperatures, according to one of the world's top climate modellers."

"'People will say this is global warming disappearing,' Mojib Latif told more than 1500 climate scientists gathered at the UN's World Climate Conference in Geneva, Switzerland, last week. "I am not one of the sceptics. However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.'"
Fred Pearce, "World will 'cool for the next decade'" New Scientist, Sept 12, 2009, p. 10.

I will bold an important point in the following quote.

"Latif predicts that in the next few years a natural cooling trend will dominate the warming caused by humans. the cooling would be down to cyclical changes in the atmosphere and ocean currents in the North Atlantic, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO)."

"Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, Latif said the NAO was probably responsible for some of the strong warming seen around the globe in the past three decades. 'But how much? The jury is still out,' he told the conference."
Fred Pearce, "World will 'cool for the next decade'" New Scientist, Sept 12, 2009, p. 10.

The article continues

"Another favourite climate belief was overturned when Pope warned the conference that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming."Fred Pearce, "World will 'cool for the next decade'" New Scientist, Sept 12, 2009, p. 10.

Let's listen to Lenny Smith, one of the writers of global climate models. In answer to the question, should we believe the models, he says

"Yes. If modellers are asked for detailed forecasts about what will happen, say, in south-east England in 2060, some feel that it's their job to provide the best available information. They then report whatever today's biggest computers spit out, even if they know those results are not robust."

"Suppose different models give simulations for precipitation in 2060, ranging from 20 per cent less rainfall to 40 per cent more rainfall. The average is a 10 per cent increase, but is that value of any use to decision-makers? We don't know how to turn those numbers into a trustworthy probability forecast. Maybe we should just accept we don't know the details."
“Fred Pearce, “Making Room for Uncertainty,” New Scientist, dec 6, 2008, p. 42

It is sad that the AGW advocates are not listening to their own experts.

And when one realizes that various models suggest different things, one should look at the spread in global warming predicted by various global climate models.

Clearly we have a lot of uncertainty in the data.


  1. I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I think I will leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

  2. It can be an option that is just a natural cycle, but we can not be sure, and will be better if we'll do something as a prevention.