Thursday, July 16, 2009

July 16th Old Farmer's Almanac and Global Cooling

This is being written on July 16th, but won't be posted for a week or so. The entry in the Old Farmer's Almanac Daily Calender for today says:

"Legend says that a July forecast of 'rain, hail, and snow' mistakenly appeared in The 1816 Old Farmer's Almanac,. Robert B. Thomas, the Almanac's founder, recalled the books and had new ones printed--but the news got out. Thomas became the subject of much ridicule--until July brought rain, hale, and snow throughout New England." July 16, 2009 The Old Farmer's Almanac Calender.

This is probably the event which gave the Almanac its reputation even though it was a mistake. What is even more interesting is the reason why the mistake was right. Probably unknown to Thomas, the sun, at that time was experiencing a dearth of sunspots in comparison to what had been the case earlier and what was to come later. When the sun has few sunspots, it is known that the earth will cool because the sun puts out less energy. Below is the chart of the sunspots before and after the Dalton Minimum.

Now, many of the global warming hysteriacs and Holocene deniers will try to tell you that the sun has little impact on the earth's temperature. Such nonsense is the output of political partisans, not sober scientists. Below is a chart of the temperature response during the Dalton Minimum in Europe. You can see that some stations dropped by over 2 degrees from 1780 to 1815. And the sun hadn't even shut down at that time.

So, the world was cold just as a volcano in Indonesia exploded.Tambora was huge, and devastating. It occurred at the worst time in the Dalton Minimum--which, you should recall was already a cold time.

“The infamous eruption in 1815 of Tambora, on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, seven hundred miles east of Krakatoa, ejected twice the volume of material into the atmosphere (eleven cubic miles of rock, ash, and dust, compared with Krakatoa’s six). The devastation it caused locally was profound—supposedly fifty thousand dead, an entire language (Tambora) extinguished, an entire island rendered uninhabitable for years. But its climatic effects were astounding too. For it lowered the world’s temperature by almost one Celsius degree, on average: for every day when the normal temperature might be thirty-three, just above freezing, the temperature in the year after Tambora would be thirty-one degrees Fahrenheit, and ice would have formed on every pond and, more fatally, on every newborn crop, flower and hatching egg.”
“So in New England the farmers claimed that 1816 was ‘the year without summer.’ There were frosts as far south as New Jersey in late May, in upper New England in June and July, and the growing season was slashed from the usual 160 days to seventy. Soup kitchens opened in Manhattan. Livestock had to be fed on fish carried over from the Atlantic seaports—1816 is also still remembered as ‘the mackerel year.’ There were crop failures-“the last great subsistence crisis of the Western world’—and, as a result, there was emigration to the Western states. No small number of today’s Californians can rightly lay responsibility for their being Californians squarely at the door of the proximate cause of that year’s ruinous cold—Tambora, a volcano unknown to most of them, and ten thousand miles away. (Although there was migration into California from Europe, in Newfoundland quite the reverse took place: Migrants were sent back east across the ocean, because there was not enough for them to eat.)"
“And yet back in Europe it was just as bad. The weather for 1816 is the worst recorded, with low temperatures stretching as far south as Tunisia. French grapes could not be harvested until November. The German wheat crop failed entirely, and prices for flour had doubled in a year. In some places there were reports of famine, and in others there were riots and mass migrations. The diaries and newspapers of the day present a litany of miseries. It is said that Byron composed his most miserable poem, “Darkness”—Morn came and went—and came, and brought no day—under the influence of that dismal year; and Mary Shelley may have written Frankenstein while gripped by a similarly unseasonable melancholy.” Simon Winchester, Krakatoa, (New York: HarperCollins, 2003), p. 292-293

Now, let's jump forward to this year. The global warming hysteriacs continue to say that the sun has no impact on the climate. This from the IPCC

"The radiative forcing due to changes in solar irradiance for the period since 1750 is estimated to be about +0.3 Wm-2, most of which occurred during the first half of the 20th century. Since the late 1970s, satellite instruments have observed small oscillations due to the 11-year solar cycle. Mechanisms for the amplification of solar effects on climate have been proposed, but currently lack a rigorous theoretical or observational basis."

Let's test the nonsense spouted above. What is the status of the solar cycle? Well, the first thing one should notice is that the sunspot cycle is now about 2 years late! Below is a comparison (up to date as of June 2009) comparing the present cycle (bold red) with the past 5 sunspot cycles. You can clearly see that by this time in the previous cycles the sunspot numbers were well over 50.

It is clear that the above shows a sun that is seriously NOT doing what it should be doing. What are the effects? June was a very cool month except for where I live, in Texas.

Coolest June in Phoenix since 1913

coolest June in New York since 1958source

Coolest June in Philly since 1997

Coolest June in Reading PA since 1992

Sixth coolest June for Boston source

2nd coolest in 10 years for Chicago

coolest June for Del Norte Colorado

North Dakota had a snowfall in June
Jun 14, 2009 ... North Dakota Gets Snowfall In June: Breaks 60 Year Record ..... that this is the coolest, wettest June since they started keeping records in ...

Yesterday was the coldest July 8th in 18 years.

And last night, July 15, as this will be posted later this month, I received an email from a friend in Canada pointing out how cold it is up there.

From this article

In a typical spring and summer, reports Coulson, there are 10 days
when the Ottawa-area surpasses 30 degrees. So far, we've had two: 30.7
on June 24 and 33.8 on June 25.

By 30-year average, July normally has about five days when the mercury
beats 30. So far, we've had none, with 27 degrees being our peak.

So far this July is colder than any July since 1938 and the article said:

"And the low overnight was expected to hit 8 C. Yes, eight. This is a stone's throw from frost. This is not a July temperature. This is how they medically induce comas. By extended cooling."

Maybe the global warming hysteriacs should loook outside once in a while.

1 comment:

  1. Google "Rhoads Fairbridge Solar Inertial Motion" to better understand how the sun drives our climate. Elevated levels of CO2 simply GREEN the planet. Google "Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment" to better understand how elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 together with mild sun-driven warming have worked together over the past several decades to dramatically "GREEN" our planet. The real question is, "Why is our government spending billions of dollars on domestic propaganda annually to convince us otherwise?"