Monday, July 13, 2009

Cooling at Carnarvon

Carnarvon, Australia shows an interesting pattern in the degree-days. Just to refresh everyone's memory a degree-day is the average monthly temperature times the number of days in that month. This measure allows one to see warming if it takes the form of more days at the same temperature or a higher temperature for the same number of days.

So, what do we see at Carnarvon, Airport? Well, from 1949 until 1988, the temperature warmed. In 1949 there were 8098 degree-days. But in 1988 it was 8500 degree-days, clearly a warming trend. But, past 1988 Carnarvon cooled. By 2008, the degree-days were down to 8037, less than in 1949. Where in the hell is the global warming? We have almost 80 ppm more CO2 in the atmosphere in 2008 than we had in 1949, but the number of degree-days is less. Does this make any sense?


  1. Glen,
    Good to see that someone else is looking at the data and doing the required checks.

    According to what I am looking at the transition from solar cycle 20 to 21 involved a move to intense warming of the tropical ocean due to a loss of upper troposphere cirrus cloud. But the upper troposphere in the tropics has been cooling ever since and if that trend continues, cloud cover will recover and the Earth will cool.

    Greenhouse theory predicts a warming tropical upper troposphere. But facts and observations are never permitted to get in the way of the story told by Al Gore and his band of zealous warmers, not even the observation that the oceans have been cooling since about 2003.

  2. When you say that facts and observations never get in the way of a good story, you are absolutely correct. It is sad. Ignoring data gets in the way of all sorts of positive things, like knowing the truth or getting rich.

    Investors who make millions tell you never to beleive anything but the data and the fact that most prefer to beleive what they want to beleive rather than the data explains why people aren't richer.