Today we are going to take a backward look at the IPCC's predictions about global warming to see if the past 40 years have behaved as they claim the next 40 years will behave.
The IPCC says this
"The equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure of the
climate system response to sustained radiative forcing.
It is not a projection but is defined as the global average
surface warming following a doubling of carbon
dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the range
2°C to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is
very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially
higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement
of models with observations is not as good for those
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., P. 12 Source
They say that the temperature rise will go up 2 to 4.5 degrees for every doubling of CO2. The temperature rise due to CO2 is logarithmic and the math works out as follows:
T = 2 x ln(ending CO2 ppm/starting CO2 ppm)/ln(2x starting CO2 ppm/starting ppm)
(ppm is parts per million of CO2)
Let's first see how this warming compares to the satellite data. The Huntsville Satellite data started in 1979 and the starting ppm, in 1979, was 335 ppm. From that, and the rise in CO2, one can derive what temperature rise we should have seen. I use the famous Keeling curve as the source for the CO2 rise in this calculation. It is the most often cited CO2 curve and is often used to scare the hell out of all of us. that is the picture below.
I want to emphasize that in the pictures above and below all the curves are TEMPERATURE not CO2. For the satellite data they are the predicted temperature with
the starting CO2 being the CO2 ppm in 1979, (335 ppm) and the ending being
the CO2 in 2007 (388 ppm). The 2x starting is 670 ppm, so the curves are what we should expect for the temperature rise since 1979. Clearly we have
been way below the expected.
The equation since 1979 is 2 x ln(current year CO2ppm/335)/ln(670/335) or
5 x ln(current year co2ppm/335)/ln(670/335).
One can clearly see in the expected temperature rise expected due to CO2 far far out ran the observed rise as measured by the satellites. This clearly indicates that the above quotation from the IPCC is utterly flawed. The world's temperature is NOT rising at either 2 or 4.5 or even 5 (as some older sources declared). And it shows that it is NOT going to rise in the future at the scary rate they claim.
Now lets look at the global temperature anomaly derived from NOAA's Global Climate at a Glance. I plotted the global temperature anomaly since 1958, when the Keeling Curve, the most often cited CO2 curve. In this case the starting CO2 is 315 ppm in 1958. Once again, the world is not warming as predicted by the IPCC. The temperature rise is far smaller than what would be expected.
This, to me, says that the IPCC is nothing but a scaremongering organization. Their predictions of the effect of CO2 has not worked out in the past but we are expected to believe that it will work out as they say in the future. Why should we believe them? Surely someone somewhere has plotted the data as I just plotted it to see if the past matches the predictions these guys are making. That would just be good science. But I have never ever seen anyone do what I just did. Is it possible that the IPCC isn't publishing things like this, which might make people think that the world isn't behaving as they say it will as the 'temperature kills civilization?