Thursday, March 26, 2009

Do climatologists beleive in backwards causation?

One of the most fascinating issues to me is that we are constantly told that CO2 will lead to a temperature increase. Physics would predict that. Of that there is no doubt. But, what is utterly fascinating is that the geologic record clearly shows that CO2 lags temperature by many years. According to geologic records, be it ice cores or sediments, when the temperature goes up (which happens first) CO2's rise comes later. Then when the temperature goes down (which happens first) CO2's fall comes later.

This of course is backwards to what the young-earth climatologists tell us is the causation. They say, CO2 rise --> Temperature rise; CO2 fall--> temperature falls. Geology says Temperature Rise--> CO2 rise; Temperature fall--> CO2 falls.

Below are charts from two papers on this issue. The first is from the Little Ice Age when the temperature fell dramatically in the 1600s. Note that the CO2 change comes 50 years after the temperature change--something else (the sun) caused the temperature change.

“The perturbations of climate and CO2 during the LIA period from 1500 to 1750 are strongly correlated, with climate leading CO2 by ~50 years (11). These records indicate a tight relation between CO2 and cliimate, with a gradient of 40 ppmv/K. However, given the discrepancies between different temperature reconstructions, and the uncertainties associated with interpreting Northern Hemisphere climate proxies in terms of global mean temperature, we estimate a gradient of 20 to 60 ppmv of CO2 per kelvin of global warming (see the figure, middle panel).”
“This is a conservative estimate based on the assumption that human CO2 emissions from land-use change (12) were not significant in the LIA, which seems consistent with the strong lead-lag relationship between climate and CO2 during this period.”
Peter Cox and Chris Jones, “Illuminating the Modern Dance of Climate and CO2,” Science, 321(2008), p. 1643

And even on longer scales CO2 lags temperature--during the glacial age changes

Yes, New Scientist, on May 17, 2007 tried to explain this away, even their data shows that temperature fall precedes CO2 fall, and in most cases CO2 rise follows most temperature rises.

Global warming hysteriacs can't explain this backwards causation and their continual claims that the emperor has clothing, doesn't mean the emperor has clothing.

1 comment:

  1. The data above has been falsified people. Do your own research...